Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 8.4 | 13.7% | 76 | 0.66% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 8.1 | 12.6% | 70 | 0.51% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 11.9 | 19% | 105 | 0.5% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 8.6 | 15.9% | 88 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 7.7 | 11.4% | 63 | 0.6% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 7.0 | 11.9% | 66 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5.3 | 9.2% | 51 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.4 | 6.3% | 35 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 72 | 60.4 | 100% | 554 | 0.53% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 04 | 16811 | 63210 | 550 | 143 | 595 |
| Nov 05 | 16881 | 63311 | 552 | 143 | 597 |
| Nov 06 | 16942 | 63385 | 553 | 143 | 603 |
| Nov 07 | 17000 | 63444 | 554 | 143 | 599 |
| Nov 08 | 17000 | 63478 | 554 | 143 | 523 |
| Nov 09 | 17063 | 63536 | 555 | 143 | 529 |
| Nov 10 | 17135 | 63617 | 555 | 143 | 554 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 04 | 11190 | 36869 | 479 | 119 | 303 |
| Nov 05 | 11241 | 36926 | 480 | 119 | 325 |
| Nov 06 | 11293 | 36963 | 481 | 119 | 348 |
| Nov 07 | 11313 | 37001 | 481 | 120 | 323 |
| Nov 08 | 11343 | 37029 | 482 | 120 | 336 |
| Nov 09 | 11386 | 37061 | 482 | 120 | 345 |
| Nov 10 | 11447 | 37104 | 482 | 120 | 380 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.4 | 10.8% | 41 | 0.53% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 6.6 | 16.3% | 62 | 0.74% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 6.1 | 13.4% | 51 | 0.72% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 5.4 | 13.9% | 53 | 0.63% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 5.1 | 12.6% | 48 | 0.62% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 5.0 | 11.6% | 44 | 0.45% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 4.3 | 10.3% | 39 | 0.46% |
| 70+ | 6 | 4.1 | 11.1% | 42 | 0.59% |
| All ages | 61 | 41.1 | 100% | 380 | 0.59% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 04 | 8633 | 24516 | 404 | 96 | 263 |
| Nov 05 | 8667 | 24548 | 404 | 96 | 286 |
| Nov 06 | 8714 | 24582 | 404 | 96 | 316 |
| Nov 07 | 8737 | 24610 | 404 | 96 | 304 |
| Nov 08 | 8758 | 24633 | 404 | 96 | 303 |
| Nov 09 | 8809 | 24660 | 405 | 96 | 305 |
| Nov 10 | 8860 | 24698 | 405 | 96 | 335 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 6.0 | 14.6% | 49 | 0.9% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 7.6 | 20% | 67 | 1.23% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 5.1 | 12.2% | 41 | 0.91% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 6.7 | 15.2% | 51 | 0.94% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 3.9 | 9.9% | 33 | 0.66% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.7 | 13.7% | 46 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.0 | 6.6% | 22 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 6 | 3.3 | 7.8% | 26 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 51 | 39.3 | 100% | 335 | 0.74% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 04 | 17755 | 72787 | 677 | 116 | 486 |
| Nov 05 | 17834 | 72884 | 677 | 116 | 518 |
| Nov 06 | 17886 | 72980 | 678 | 116 | 519 |
| Nov 07 | 17909 | 73045 | 679 | 117 | 497 |
| Nov 08 | 18000 | 73104 | 679 | 117 | 535 |
| Nov 09 | 18078 | 73215 | 683 | 117 | 552 |
| Nov 10 | 18150 | 73334 | 683 | 117 | 610 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 8.9 | 14.4% | 88 | 0.74% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 10.9 | 17.5% | 107 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 11.9 | 17.7% | 108 | 0.51% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 10.7 | 17.4% | 106 | 0.78% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.9 | 9.8% | 60 | 0.44% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 8.0 | 11.3% | 69 | 0.49% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.6 | 6.1% | 37 | 0.26% |
| 70+ | 6 | 3.9 | 5.7% | 35 | 0.27% |
| All ages | 72 | 64.6 | 100% | 610 | 0.52% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 04 | 58591 | 427635 | 1976 | 380 | 1042 |
| Nov 05 | 58762 | 428201 | 1979 | 380 | 1098 |
| Nov 06 | 58929 | 428895 | 1983 | 380 | 1184 |
| Nov 07 | 58986 | 429426 | 1984 | 380 | 1140 |
| Nov 08 | 59057 | 429776 | 1985 | 380 | 1075 |
| Nov 09 | 59259 | 430193 | 1987 | 380 | 1166 |
| Nov 10 | 59413 | 430643 | 1988 | 380 | 1252 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 18.4 | 14.1% | 176 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 19 | 18.3 | 12.9% | 161 | 0.23% |
| 20-29 | 28 | 28.4 | 19.3% | 242 | 0.23% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 22.6 | 16.6% | 208 | 0.27% |
| 40-49 | 28 | 18.4 | 12.9% | 161 | 0.25% |
| 50-59 | 24 | 14.1 | 10.2% | 128 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 12.3 | 9% | 113 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 4 | 6.7 | 5% | 63 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 154 | 139.3 | 100% | 1252 | 0.23% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 04 | 896269 | 3564936 | 45985 | 9606 | 24466 |
| Nov 05 | 899563 | 3569648 | 46048 | 9613 | 24814 |
| Nov 06 | 902593 | 3575477 | 46119 | 9622 | 25538 |
| Nov 07 | 903870 | 3579318 | 46160 | 9630 | 24221 |
| Nov 08 | 905177 | 3581953 | 46203 | 9638 | 22857 |
| Nov 09 | 909088 | 3585747 | 46251 | 9641 | 24165 |
| Nov 10 | 913237 | 3590576 | 46276 | 9641 | 27398 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 559 | 374.6 | 13% | 3550 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 663 | 468.0 | 15.6% | 4263 | 0.56% |
| 20-29 | 561 | 385.4 | 12.8% | 3519 | 0.46% |
| 30-39 | 671 | 472.6 | 16.3% | 4455 | 0.59% |
| 40-49 | 546 | 387.1 | 13.5% | 3694 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 492 | 342.4 | 12% | 3289 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 395 | 273.3 | 9.6% | 2631 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 256 | 198.4 | 7.2% | 1977 | 0.31% |
| All ages | 4149 | 2904.0 | 100% | 27398 | 0.47% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-12-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 9390"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges